Case study
Kwalitaria, the 130+ location Dutch fries-and-burgers chain, saw delivery grow from a side channel into nearly half its business in just two years. The question was never whether to lean into delivery. It was which locations could actually carry it.
Between 2019 and 2021, delivery climbed from roughly a fifth of Kwalitaria's revenue to nearly half. The shift didn't land evenly: some locations were built for it, others weren't. Before committing new investment, Kwalitaria needed to know which factors actually predict delivery success, and which of its sites, current and future, could carry it.
Kwalitaria brought in Locatus and The Big Data Company to find out what actually drives delivery performance. The analysis pointed to a specific mix: local delivery partners, speed and quality of service, social-media presence, and local conditions like population density and competition. As Mattijn Bezemer of The Big Data Company puts it, delivery success is a specific combination of factors, not population density alone.
That analysis fed the revenue model behind IRIS, then called the Retail Revenue Calculator: a model Kwalitaria can rerun against any location in the Netherlands to see how it would perform for pickup and delivery both, not a one-off report that goes stale.
Locations already doing delivery alongside takeaway were outperforming the takeaway-only ones, which is the pattern the model had to explain. And every site forecast carries its prediction interval, never a lone number.
Locations doing delivery as well as takeaway pulled clearly ahead of the takeaway-only ones. And because the model is a living one rather than a one-off study, Kwalitaria can rerun it as the market keeps shifting, right down to segments like under-30s, where delivery already topped half of orders by 2021.
